Palm Beach County Real Estate News

Get the latest Palm Beach County real estate market information about what is going on in cities including Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter, West Palm Beach, Palm Beach, Singer Island plus hot communities like: BallenIsles, Mirasol, The Bears Club, Frenchman's Creek, Steeplechase, Frenchman's Reserve plus many more!

Dec. 29, 2012

Listing is Only the First Step to Selling a Home

Finding a realtor and listing a home is only the first phase of a successful sale. Most buyers are not just purchasing a home, they are purchasing a fantasy, a dream – their ideal life, and it’s up to the seller to create an atmosphere that allows the potential buyer to see themselves living in the home. This could include anything from de-cluttering and rearranging, to replacing or removing certain furniture items. In the real estate industry, this process is called "staging", and according to industry experts, if a seller chooses not to stage the home, they could lose more money in price reduction, than it would have cost them to hire a professional stager.

There are a number of benefits when it comes to investing in home staging. Besides potentially saving the seller money in the long run, a staged home is likely to attract more buyers than a home that is haphazardly or poorly decorated, untidy or cluttered.  In turn, the more interested buyers there are, the greater the chance that the home will sell quickly and close to the asking price.

In the competitive real estate market, professional staging can help a home stand out from the wide range of other listings in the Palm Beach Gardens area. A potential buyer may look at several properties in the same area and price range and if so, they are then more likely to choose the one that more closely matches their vision of their ideal home. In 'All Their World's a Staging', an article published by The New York Times, real estate broker and president of the International Association of Home Staging Professionals, Barb Scharwz says, "...staging is preparing a home for sale so the buyer can mentally move in. " She also emphasizes the difference between staging and decorating, by stating that "Decorating a home is personalizing it. Staging a home is depersonalizing it.", therefore the seller is creating the perfect atmosphere for the buyer.

Additionally, in a video posted by The Huffington Post, real-estate expert Barbara Corcoran emphasizes that staging a home is extremely important, stating that after choosing the perfect location, the number two reason that buyers choose or reject a home, is lighting. She advises sellers to make sure that the home is as light and bright as possible; paint the walls white, get light-colored lamp shades, and up the wattage. Corcoran says that lighting is one of the simplest but best tools to sell a home quickly.

When you really stop to think about it, you’ll be able to see that this whole (simple) process can help to save both the seller and the buyer a lot of time, stress and uncertainty. Ultimately, there’s no question that the benefits of staging a home far outweigh any negative thoughts you may have about hiring a professional to help you.

Nov. 13, 2012

Even The Greatest Homes Could Use a Face Lift

Even though you’ve taken the plunge and purchased the perfect home doesn’t mean that it’s 100% perfect for you. While the previous owners may have enjoyed 70’s chic, you may prefer a more modern approach. Or maybe the master bathroom is lacking that king-size Jacuzzi you’ve always dreamed of. No matter what it is, we all know that even the greatest homes could use a little bit of a face lift sometimes. So how do you find the right contractor for the job?

In a recent article published by U.S. News and World Report, writer, Daniel Bortz, unveils a few tips on how to make sure you are getting the best service available at the right price when embarking on any new remodeling or renovation projects. The first on the list would be to “Vet the contractors and their bids”. You may be tempted to turn to family and friends when it comes to references on good builders but as the article points out, that might not be the best decision. Instead, look to accredited sites such as the Better Business Bureau (BBB), which has compiled more than 100,000 general contractor reviews, and AngiesList.com, where you can gauge a contractor’s work ethic.

The article also suggests that you talk to several local contractors and make sure that each one takes a look at the property before making an offer to ensure that the bids are as accurate as possible. To be on the safe side, you should obtain at least three bids before making a final decision on who to hire.

Any prospective contractor will also likely give you a list of references but you can be sure that those clients will have only good things to say. Instead, you might want to consider visiting one of their job sites to better judge the quality of their work. Ask the homeowner a few questions, if you can, and feel out the situation.

Another great tip that Bortz suggests is to confirm your prospective contractor’s licensing and insurance. Most licenses can be checked online and the BBB’s website will let you know what the insurance requirements are for your state, so you’ll know what to look for. Be sure to verify the contractor’s certificate of insurance or the name of their insurance company, so that at the very least you know that they are covered for workers’ compensation. This way, you’ll know that you are not financially responsible if a worker is injured on the job.

Lastly, be sure to get everything in writing. When you know exactly what is included in the contract, you will most certainly avoid a lot of problems that could otherwise pop up down the road. After all of the time, energy and money you’ve poured into purchasing a house such as one of the wonderful luxury homes for sale in Palm Beach County, FL, you certainly don’t want to waste any more of it on correcting mistakes during a remodeling or renovation project. For more on these tips, visit the U.S. News and World Report’s website and read, “How to Find the Right Contractor for the Job”.

Posted in Palm Beach County
Oct. 12, 2012

Continuously on the Rise

When looking to put your Palm Beach Gardens or Jupiter, FL home up on the market, you need to use the best realtors in the business. The Leibowitz Realty Group offers a full team of experienced realtors who genuinely care for you and your family’s needs when it comes to getting the best price for the home you’ve put so much into.

As the housing market takes a turn for the better, both in Florida and Nationwide, now is an optimal time to sell your luxury home in South Florida if you’re looking to move on to something new. According to an article from Time Magazine, “A measure of U.S. home prices jumped 4.6% in August compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase in more than six years.”

Here we see the classic case of supply and demand; potential home buyers are becoming more and more interested in purchasing homes so the sellers can now afford to increase the price of their homes during the sale. According to Time, “Steady price increases, combined with greater home sales and rising builder confidence, suggest the housing recovery may be sustainable.”

As one of the top South Florida Realty Groups for Luxury Homes, Leibowitz Realty has had its hands in countless exclusive listings in Palm Beach Gardens and Jupiter neighborhoods such as Mirasol, Frenchmans Reserve, Abacoa and PGA National, as well as Frenchmans Creek, BallenIsles, and Steeplechase to name a few. We have full confidence that our experience will get you the turn-around you’ve been waiting for during tough market times.

Though the situation remains cracked, all of this is a sure sign that we are well on our way to repairing the damage the real estate market has seen over the past few years. Time elaborates by stating, “The broader economy will likely benefit from rising home values. When prices rise, people typically feel wealthier and spend more. And more Americans are likely to put their houses up for sale, which could further energize the market.”

This is the first time that the housing market has started to rebound in the bubble burst more than five years ago. Be sure to act while we’re still on an incline and call Leibowitz Realty to take the next step today.

Posted in home seller tips
Oct. 4, 2012

Economists: Housing recovery finally here

(NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation's housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

Economists have been encouraged by a variety of readings, including three straight months of increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, a pick-up in sales of existing homes and home construction and a big jump in the price of new home sales.

Mortgage rates are also likely to remain near record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve's purchase of $40 billion in mortgages a month for the foreseeable future.

"We're seeing the signs of a pulse in a sector that has been flat-lined for a number of years," said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida.

Determining when the housing market has turned the corner is important for more than home builders and real estate agents. Even before soaring foreclosures sparked a meltdown in financial markets in 2008, the housing market had become a significant drag on the economy. Housing continued to subtract from the nation's gross domestic product right up through early 2011.

But starting in the fourth quarter of last year, housing has been adding to growth. Lynn Reaser, chief economist for Point Loma Nazarene University, said housing is now bucking the trend in what is otherwise a sluggish U.S. economy.

Still, economists don't believe housing is ready to be a major driver of economic growth, as it was during the housing boom and some earlier economic recoveries. But housing could keep the economy moving in the right direction.

Some of the economists surveyed said they believe there's been some fundamental change of thinking in the market place. Buyers who had postponed housing purchases while prices slid are finally more comfortable making the plunge.

"You had a lot of people with what they needed to buy homes -- jobs, decent credit scores -- who were on the sidelines. All they needed to do is wait for their confidence to rebuild," said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Reaser said that that change in attitude is a key to the market turnaround.

"The firming in home prices might be feeding on itself," she said. "You've got buyers not wanting to miss the bottom of home prices and mortgage rates."

 

@CNNMoney October 3, 2012.  Click here to read the original article

Posted in Real Estate News
Aug. 24, 2012

Signs of Revival, Slight but Sure, for Home Sales

John Gurzinski for The New York Times

Analysts are hailing the beginnings of a recovery in the nation’s housing market. But to beleaguered homeowners, it will not feel like much of one for many months to come.

The number of existing homes sold rose 2.3 percent in July from the previous month, according to figures released Wednesday. Volume was up more than 10 percent from a year ago.

For several months, economic data and accounts from real estate agents across the country have calmed fears that the overall market could take another big step down, giving prospective home buyers some assurance that prices were stabilizing.

Yet the nascent recovery is still a convalescent one, with the pace of activity uneven and far below the levels reached before the bubble burst. Home prices remain under pressure in many markets.

In fact, Wednesday’s report from the National Association of Realtors showed that average sales prices actually dipped slightly from June to July. This seeming contradiction — increasing demand but anemic growth in home values — could represent a new normal in the housing market, experts said.

Real estate agents across the country cited the weak job market, stagnant wages and tight lending standards as continuing restraints on prices, despite pent-up demand and mortgage rates near record lows.

Even relatively optimistic observers like Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, foresaw only gradual improvements in home values. She expected home prices to rise 2 percent annually in 2012 and 2013, with momentum gradually increasing later in the decade. At that rate, the average home price would regain its 2006 peak in 2022.

“Inventory is lower and construction is incredibly depressed,” she said. “But it’s bumpy. We could see prices weaken slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.”

Joe Abbruzzese, a retired farmer from upstate New York, was in southwest Florida this week bargain hunting for a second home. “I wanted to get down here before the snowbirds arrive,” he said. He was looking at five or six properties in the low- to mid-$100,000s before he left New York, but by the time he arrived in Florida only one was left.

Mr. Abbruzzese said that while prices had increased in recent months, he was betting that they would rise still more after the presidential election restored some certainty to the country’s political course. “I think people are really scared right now; they’re not spending the money,” he said.

While new buyers might take comfort in the fact that deep declines in home values seem to have passed, more than 11 million current homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. In July, home sales were running at an annual pace of 4.47 million, an improvement over a year ago, but well below the high of 7.25 million reached in September 2005.

New-home sales also were picking up, lifting share prices for many home builders. On Wednesday, Toll Brothers reported a sharp rebound in profits, lifting its stock 3.8 percent.

A number of factors have helped nudge prices higher, including shrinking inventory — particularly on the more affordable end of the market. There is about a six-month supply of homes, according to the Realtors’ group, down from more than nine months last summer.

In California, the supply of houses has become so slim that agents protested a bulk sale of 500 foreclosed houses by Fannie Mae, the mortgage giant, saying there was no need to sell the homes at a discount to investors when there were retail buyers willing to buy them. (Most of the properties would not have been sold individually because they were occupied by renters.)

Concerns that a flood of distressed properties will soon hit the market were also receding.

Banks have been taking more aggressive measures to avert forclosures which have been declining for almost two years, according to RealtyTrac. Short sales, the practice of allowing homeowners to sell their property for less than they owe before the home reaches the auction block, are on the rise. Some banks have recently introduced “deed for lease” initiatives to convert delinquent owners into renters instead of evicting them.

Sales of distressed properties, which act as a drag on prices, represented 24 percent of all activity, down from 29 percent a year ago.

“The broad opinion is that housing is definitely improving and on the upswing,” said David Blitzer, the chairman of the index committee for S.& P.’s Dow Jones Indices, which produces the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. “And that is a positive factor for the economy as well.”

In some areas, real estate brokers were skeptical that any improvement would be sustained.

Michael Parra, a real estate agent in Las Vegas, said investors who had been fueling the market with cash purchases were starting to get cold feet, fearing values would not appreciate further as long as incomes lag and jobs are scarce.

“You’re going to have a catfish market,” Mr. Parra said. “You know, catfish stay on the bottom and they occasionally jump up to the surface.”

Economists like to caution that there is no such thing as a national real estate market. Results vary widely from place to place, and some of the biggest increases in prices have come in parts of the country hit the hardest when the housing boom turned to bust.

Home prices in Phoenix fell 55.9 percent from June 2006 through September 2011, when they bottomed, according to the Case-Shiller index. Since then, they have risen 8.8 percent. And in San Francisco, which had a 46.1 percent decline, prices have recovered 10.6 percent from the low in March 2009.

More typical is Chicago, which hit a low in March 2012. Prices there have risen 1.1 percent since then. Case-Shiller is still showing a slight decline nationally in average prices over the past year, but analysts will be closely watching data due out next week for signs of a turnaround.

Barbara Gargiulo, a real estate broker in northern New Jersey, said market conditions in her area varied widely. Montclair, she said, has only a two-month supply of houses on the market — far less than some of its neighbors.

Still, she said, a house that sold last year for $620,000 sold again this year for $650,000, above its list price.

“I think we’ll have some small little peaks, small little valleys, but in general we’ll see an upward curve over the next few years,” she said.

 

Read original article here

Posted in Real Estate News
Aug. 23, 2012

July home sales up, prices rise in Florida

TALLAHASSEE -- Sales of existing homes rose 9.8 percent in July from a year ago as the state continues a long, steady improvement, according to date released Wednesday by Florida Realtors.

Pending sales, those expected to close within 90 days, were up 42 percent.

Median prices of existing homes and condominiums also improved year to year, while the inventory of properties on the market continues to fall, a combination of statistics that industry representatives say bodes well for the state.

"Florida's real estate recovery is on solid ground," said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene. "Since May 2011, pending sales have increased every month for both existing single-family homes and for townhome-condo properties."

The median price of existing homes sold during the month was $148,000, up 7.8 percent from a year ago.

Condominium sales were also stronger. Pending sales were up 26 percent in July while median prices increased 10.9 percent to $102,000.

While prices rose, the inventory of homes sitting on the market is shrinking. In July, the inventory of existing homes was 5.3 months, down a bit from June.. A year ago, there was a 9-month supply.

"We really need to recognize that over the past year, we have seen a market reversal, from a clear buyers' market to a neutral market to one that is verging on a sellers' market," said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo, in a statement. "This is a precursor to price growth."

Nationally, home sales rose 10.4 percent in July from a year ago, but the increase is being held back somewhat by continued tight credit restrictions, which is preventing some first time home buyers from entering the market, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Nationally, sales resulting from foreclosures and short sales represented 24 percent of sales, down from 29 percent a year ago.

Prices were also up nationally, up 9.7 percent to $187,300 from July 2011.

"Fewer sales in the lower price ranges are contributing to stronger increases in the median price, but all of the home price measures now are showing positive movement and that is building confidence in the market," Yun said in a statement. "Furthermore, the higher median price naturally means more housing contribution to economic growth."

Regionally, existing-home sales in the South rose 2.3 percent from June to an annual level of 1.77 million in July and are 8.6 percent above July 2011. The median price in the region was $162,600, up 6.6 percent from a year ago.

 

Read original article here.

Posted in Real Estate News
Aug. 23, 2012

U.S. Home Prices Post Biggest Jump Since 2005

By Alan Zibel and Tom Barkley

Here’s another sign the housing market is improving: U.S. home prices took the biggest quarterly jump in 6 1/2 years, according to a government index.

Home prices rose 1.8% in the April-June period compared with the first quarter of the year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Thursday. It was the biggest quarterly jump since the fourth quarter of 2005, when prices rose by 2.2%. Prices were up 3% from the same quarter a year earlier.

On a monthly basis, prices adjusted for seasonal factors were up 0.7% in June from a month earlier, a better result than forecast. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a 0.6% monthly increase. Prices in May were up 0.6% from a month earlier, revised from the previous reading of a 0.8% increase.

 

Read the oriiginal Wall Street Journal article here

Posted in Real Estate News
Aug. 9, 2012

Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles

Home prices rose by their largest percentage in at least seven years during the second quarter, propelled by low inventories of properties for sale and high demand for bargain-priced foreclosures, according to two reports Tuesday.

WSJ's Nick Timiraos stops by Mean Street to discuss Fannie Mae's second-quarter profit, another indication of an improving U.S. housing recovery. (Photo: AP)
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Prices rose by 2.5% in June from a year ago, and by 6% from the previous quarter, said CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, Calif., data firm. The quarterly jump was the largest since 2005.

Separately, Freddie Mac, which uses a different methodology, said home prices during the second quarter jumped by 4.8% from the previous quarter. That was the largest jump since 2004.

Rising home values helped lift Freddie to a $3 billion profit, its best showing since the mortgage-finance company was taken over by the U.S. government four years ago. Freddie's larger sibling, Fannie Mae, which hasn't yet reported second-quarter earnings, posted a $2.7 billion gain for the first quarter.

The main force behind the home-price gains appears to be a shortage of homes for sale. The number of properties on the market is down sharply from a year ago. Meanwhile, demand is up, as mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in at least 60 years.

Prices are rising because "there's not enough supply, given higher levels of demand," said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm. Last week, Ms. Zelman revised her 2012 price forecast to a 5% gain. At the beginning of the year, she predicted a 1% decline. "With every passing month, distressed homes are being absorbed at better and better prices," she wrote recently.

Inventories are low for a handful of reasons. Investors who are scooping up homes have been converting them into rentals rather than flipping them, keeping the properties off the market. Banks have slowed their foreclosure processes in the past two years after they were found to be rushing through incomplete paperwork to repossess homes.

New-home construction has been at depressed levels for years, as builders have had to fend off competition from bank-owned foreclosures. That lack of new construction "has set the foundation for a snapback in pricing," said Michael Sklarz, president of Collateral Analytics, a Honolulu-based research firm.

Many traditional sellers are sitting on the sidelines because they are unable or unwilling to sell.

More than 11 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, meaning they are likely to sell only if they have to move. Others who have equity could be holding out for higher prices down the road.

In hard-hit markets, "only a little bit of the market is tradable because you have so much negative equity," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real-estate firm Zillow Inc. "You have very few people willing to sell homes, and a big uptick in demand can create some real price appreciation."

Meanwhile, as inventories have shrunk, demand has picked up. "Everything is going to multiple offers," said Anthony Lamacchia, who owns a real-estate firm in Waltham, Mass. One of his agents has written 15 offers for four different buyers this summer, failing to land a property each time.

Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo., said demand for mortgages to buy homes is even outpacing the levels seen during 2009 and 2010, when federal home-buyer tax credits spurred a burst of sales. "Main Street morale has brightened a great deal here," he said. "Sellers have lost their fear of giving away a house. Buyers have lost their fear of doing something dumb."

The Federal Reserve said Monday demand for mortgages to purchase homes jumped during the second quarter by the largest amount in at least three years, according to a survey of bank lending officers.

Investor buying in many markets also could help change the psychology for traditional buyers, creating momentum that becomes self-reinforcing. "People say, 'If there are good deals here, why are we letting investors take advantage?' " Mr. Sklarz said. "Investors are forcing everyone else to think about this logically."

For now, price increases appear to be broad-based. CoreLogic said 71 of the nation's top 100 metropolitan areas saw prices rise on a year-over-year basis in May, compared with just 19 markets in December. That was the largest number of rising metro areas since November 2006, when home prices began to tumble.

The jump in home prices is particularly notable at the low end of the market, fueled by investors making all-cash offers for foreclosures that can be rented out. Such rising prices allowed Freddie Mac to set aside less cash in reserve for loan losses. The company lost 38 cents for every $1 of debt that went through foreclosure during the second quarter, an improvement from 40 cents at the end of March and 42 cents a year ago.

That dynamic was evident in hard-hit markets such as Phoenix that this year have notched price gains. In Arizona, Freddie lost 40 cents for every $1 that it foreclosed on, compared with 51 cents a year ago.

Housing markets still face challenges. Many aspiring homeowners can't qualify for a mortgage because lending standards have tightened, with banks scrutinizing borrowers' income and assets or potential snags that might later require them to buy the loan back from Fannie or Freddie, were the borrower to default. Others simply have too much debt to take on a home purchase.

Another serious concern is the "shadow supply" of more than three million properties with mortgages in some stage of foreclosure or serious delinquency that haven't been taken back by lenders.

Freddie Mac, for example, said it still had $118 billion in delinquent mortgages, just below its peak of six months ago. "All the metrics are getting better, but the nonperforming inventory is still very large," said Jim Vogel, an analyst at FTN Financial. As a result, he added, "we wouldn't tell anybody that the corner has been turned yet."

The Housing Bust Is Over

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing, writes David Wessel.

Meanwhile, home sales are falling in some hard-hit markets where stocks of foreclosed properties are nearly empty. In Nevada, for example, a state law revamping the foreclosure process and imposing penalties for noncompliance brought bank repossessions to a halt. Sales of foreclosed homes in Las Vegas hit a 4½ year low in June, according to DataQuick, prompting home sales to fall by 16% from one year ago, the first decline in one year.

At the same time, some buyers "aren't happy with what's on the market, and they're staying on the sidelines," said Jon Mirmelli, a real-estate broker and investor in Phoenix. "It's a frustrating market right now."

Price gains also are likely to ease later in the year, when home sales traditionally slow. June prices rose by 1.3% from May, compared with monthly gains of 2.3% in May and in April, CoreLogic said in its report Tuesday. Freddie said its forecast calls for several more months of weak home prices.

But the biggest worry is still whether the economy can add enough jobs to keep sales strong. "At some point the global economy has to creep into people's thinking. I worry about that all the time," said Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin Corp., a real-estate brokerage with offices in 14 states.

Posted in Real Estate News
July 15, 2012

Whats happening in Palm Beach Gardens

Written and researched by Elyse Schneiderman 

 

 All of the major newspapers are claiming the markets are turning and predict a 10% rise in property values within a year in Palm Beach County. Tourists are back , numbers reaching over 5 million last season. One out of 5 visitors comes from NY., N. J. and Pa.  Owner of the Duffy's chain report their numbers are tremendously up due to tourists and people visiting this area. This also translates into more home buyers.

 
Another fact is that over 40% of land in the Gardens and Jupiter has been dedicated for conservation. This means that it can never become overcrowded. National researchers feel this will contribute to this area becoming more valuable in the years to come. Prices will go up!!!
Ibis just ruled that there can be no more outside members for at least 3 years. Mirasol pushed out their outside members and Ballenisles really does not have outside members with only a few exceptions.  As an alterative, those who live in non country club environments, who want to play golf are joining Eastpointe. Many of those who join Eastpointe, are those who were once outside members of the above mentioned country clubs.
 
Eastpoine is experiencing a resurgence. It is a relatively inexpensive to live. Older, but gated. Many of the recent newcomers include people from Frenchmen's Creek,  Ballenisles and Ibis. One cannot compare their amenities to the other clubs but it an affordable option for many who are older and no longer want to pay for a full golf membership. It is nice to be able to have choices.
 
WHAT I HAVE ALWAYS SAID IS THAT EVERYONE FINDS A PLACE WHERE THEY WILL BE COMFORTABLE. THE MAJORITY OF RESIDENTS LOVE WHERE THEY LIVE AND CONSIDER IT PARADISE.
 
As for new on scene. Johnny's Hot Pie Pizza opened in the old space occupied by Josephs. The pizza is fabulous and tastes like pizza from most of your childhoods. The owner owns a successful restaurant downtown West Palm. The restaurant has salads and subs. It only has about 6 tables but does deliver. Also a new popular restaurant is the Dive Bar, located in Jupiter Yacht Club Center. Very casual with water views.. Reviews are great, and lots of ambiance for a casual dinner.
Posted in Palm Beach Gardens
July 6, 2012

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing

After Years of False Hopes, Signs of a Turn in Housing

WASHINGTON — Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.

The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.

Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.

“I just had a home that wasn’t supposed to go on the market for two weeks sold before it even went on the market,” Mr. Niece said. “It’s definitely a lot different than what we saw” during the last few summers.

Like the economic recovery that began three years ago, what happens next is likely to prove a little disappointing. The pace of recovery will probably be slow, and the prices of many homes will continue to decline.

Millions of people remain underwater, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth, and unable to sell. Millions of families still face foreclosure. And a setback in the still-fragile economic recovery could easily reverse the uptick in housing prices, too.

But roughly six years after the housing market began its longest and deepest slide since the Great Depression, a growing number of experts and people who actually put money into housing believe the end has come.

“Our sense is that the market is recovering, and we’re extremely confident that it’s not going to get worse,” said Ronnie Morgan, a San Diego real estate professional who recently created a $10 million partnership to buy foreclosed homes. The group, Alegria Real Estate Funds, already has bought about 20 homes in suburban communities, most of which they plan to hold as rental properties.

“It feels very much like we’ve hit a bottom and we’re starting to come off of that bottom,” said Stuart Miller, chief executive of Lennar, a major national home builder based in Miami. The company said Wednesday that second-quarter profits were higher than expected, and orders for new homes rose 40 percent.

“I’m a little nervous,” Mr. Miller quickly added in a conference call with analysts, “about saying the word ‘recovery.’ ”

The trend is clear in the data. The widely respected S.&P./Case-Shiller index reported earlier this week that sales prices for existing homes rose in April for the first time this year. Several other measures, including a seasonally adjusted version of the index, show that price increases began in February. The pace of housing construction has increased. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that pending home sales climbed to the highest level since the end of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers in September 2010.

This is the fourth consecutive year that the housing market has shown signs of revival, and each previous episode ended with prices renewing their downward slide.

But with each passing year, an eventual recovery has grown more likely. Prices have continued to fall, and the economy has continued to recover, a combination that has expanded the pool of potential buyers. The population has continued to grow while few new homes have been built.

Basic indicators of market health that bulged during the bubble, like the ratio of housing prices to income, have returned to more normal levels.

Government efforts to help homeowners have intensified, allowing more borrowers to refinance or avoid foreclosure.

“All bets are off if anything happens to the economy, but apart from that, I think the fundamentals look better than they’ve looked in 17 or 18 years,” said Richard K. Green, a professor of real estate at the University of Southern California.

Professor Green cited the combination of rising rents and low mortgage rates as a powerful inducement to potential buyers, both renters who would prefer to own and investors who want to become landlords.

“Compared to a lot of other investments right now this looks pretty good,” he said.

The influx of investors is a major reason that the market is looking stronger. Mr. Morgan, 56, built apartments before the housing crash. In 2010, seeing a new opportunity, he and some friends started bidding at the foreclosure auctions then held on the steps of the San Diego County Courthouse.

At first they bought properties to renovate and resell. Now they are focused on potential rental properties in the kinds of gated, planned communities in suburban San Diego that once were populated almost exclusively by people who owned their homes. Some of their tenants are former homeowners.

And competition has increased. The auctions were moved from the courthouse steps last year because the crowds had grown too large.

“There’s not a whole lot of other places to put your money,” Mr. Morgan said.

There are still reasons for caution. An unusually warm winter seems to have given a temporary and misleading boost to a range of economic indicators.

The pace of economic growth remains slow and fragile, shadowed by the risk that politicians in Europe and Washington will fail to address looming problems.

And the rise in prices is happening despite the vast number of vacant houses awaiting buyers, up to two million more than the normal level, with several million more houses still at risk of being foreclosed.

But this “shadow inventory” is not distributed uniformly, according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. Even within metropolitan areas like Phoenix, the vacant houses are clustered in less desirable neighborhoods, while buyers are seeking homes in areas where there are few vacancies.

Under these circumstances, the researchers concluded, “It is possible for us to see both house price increases and excess housing supply at the same time.”

Indeed, in a growing number of areas demand for homes is outstripping supply.

The number of homes for sale has been falling for more than a year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Some owners are waiting for prices to rise; some of them must wait because they are underwater.

Mr. Niece, the Minnesota real estate agent, said he and his partner had seen their book of listings decline from about 120 properties to 70 properties, about 45 of which already are under contract.

“I have buyers every single day complaining that they can’t find houses,” he said.

Driving through a neighboring suburb last week, Mr. Niece said that he passed a sign outside another real estate office that read, “The market is great. We’ve sold all of our inventory. We need listings.”

 

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